Fuseworks Media

Weather outlook for the last week of meteorological summer

Covering period of Monday 26 – Thursday 29 February

After a dry February so far, the last week of meteorological summer starts off wet for the North Island, with settled weather for the South Island. Heavy Rain Watches are in place for Great Barrier Island, the Coromandel Peninsula and the Bay of Plenty on Monday, but MetService is forecasting the rain in the second half of the week to mostly fall in dry eastern areas.

The Bay of Plenty, Great Barrier Island, and the Coromandel Peninsula are all under Heavy Rain Watches until the early hours of Tuesday, as warm humid air over these areas brings an increased risk of localised downpours this afternoon and evening (Monday).

MetService Meteorologist Clare O’Connor advises, “The risk of localised downpours is the biggest concern with these Heavy Rain Watches, as peak intensities of 20 to 35 mm per hour could occur. Downpours such as these can cause surface flooding and hazardous driving conditions so if you are in an area covered by a Heavy Rain Watch make sure you keep an eye on the MetService rain radar and forecast throughout the day”.

This humid air is wrapped into an area of low pressure which crosses the North Island in the early hours of Tuesday morning. As the low moves to the east of Aotearoa New Zealand, it takes the rain with it, feeding showers onshore on the east coasts of both main islands. As these eastern areas have been the drier locations of this summer, any rainfall is likely welcome, however, accumulations expected will not alleviate the dry conditions.

After a month of see-sawing temperatures, this week these return to normal for the time of year, although fresh southerly winds on Wednesday afternoon about the lower North Island will add a brief chill to the air. For the extra day of February 29th, it is looking relatively settled across the country.

For media enquiries or to arrange an interview with one of our meteorologists please call 04 4700 848 or email metcomms@metservice.com

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:

  • This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
  • When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
  • Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
  • In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

  • When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
  • Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
  • In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

  • When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
  • Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
  • In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

  • Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
  • Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
  • During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

  • When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
  • Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
  • During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

  • To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
  • Issued routinely once or twice a day
  • Recommendation: Plan

To get the most up to date information on severe weather around the country, or any other forecasts, see metservice.com or download the MetService mobile app


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